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What Trade Measures Will China and the US Exempt Each Other From? Insights from the China-US Geneva Joint Statement

·1126 words·6 mins

On May 12, the Joint Statement on U.S.-China Economic and Trade Meeting in Geneva was released, marking a gradual de-escalation of the nearly two-month-long tariff war. However, the document does not permanently resolve the long-standing tariff and trade disputes between China and the US. While the future trajectory of these disagreements may be manageable, it remains shrouded in uncertainty.

What Trade Measures Have China and the US Taken Since February? #

United States #

  1. Fentanyl Tariffs: In February, the Trump administration imposed an additional 10% tariff on all goods imported from China, citing Chinese subsidies for fentanyl exports. This tariff was later increased to 20% and took effect on March 4.

  2. Global Steel and Aluminum 232 Tariffs: On February 10, the Trump administration issued two executive orders imposing a 25% additional tariff on all steel and aluminum products from foreign countries. (The US had already imposed an additional 20% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum under Section 232, bringing the total tariff on Chinese products to 45%.) These tariffs took effect on March 23.

  3. Global Automobile 232 Tariffs: On March 26, the Trump administration issued an executive order imposing a 25% additional tariff on all foreign automobiles and automobile parts. This tariff took effect on April 3.

  4. Trump’s “Reciprocal Tariffs” (EO14257): On April 2, the Trump administration announced a uniquely calculated “reciprocal tariff”, imposing a 34% additional tariff on all goods imported from China. The first 10% took effect on April 5, with the remainder following on April 9.

  5. Trump’s “Threatened Reciprocal Tariffs” (EO14259): On April 8, in response to Chinese retaliatory tariffs, the Trump administration issued an executive order raising the “reciprocal tariff” on China to 84% and increasing tariffs on small cross-border e-commerce shipments, dealing a heavy blow to online retailers.

  6. Trump’s “Super Reciprocal Tariffs” (EO14266): On April 9, the Trump administration further increased the “reciprocal tariff” to 125%, bringing the total tariff on Chinese products to 145%.

  7. Electronics Exemptions: On April 11, the Trump administration rolled back some tariffs, reducing the tariff on smartphones, computers, and certain electronics imported from China to 20%.

China #

  1. Google Investigation: On February 4, the State Administration for Market Regulation launched an antitrust investigation into Google. Limited information has been released, but western media interpreted this as one of China’s responses to the fentanyl tariffs.

  2. First Counter Method on Fentanyl Tariffs: After the US imposed tariffs on all Chinese goods citing fentanyl issues, China’s Tariff Commission announced retaliatory tariffs of 15% on coal and liquefied natural gas, and 10% on crude oil, agricultural machinery, large-displacement vehicles, and pickup trucks imported from the US. These tariffs took effect on March 4.

  3. Second Counter Method on Fentanyl Tariffs: After the US raised the fentanyl tariff to 20%, China’s Tariff Commission announced 15% tariffs on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, and 10% tariffs on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products from the US. These tariffs took effect on March 10.

  4. “Reciprocal Tariff” Retaliation: On April 4, the Tariff Commission announced a 34% retaliatory tariff, effective April 10. On the same day, the Ministry of Commerce filed a consultation request with the WTO (DS638) regarding the US “reciprocal tariff” measures. The Ministry also launched a competitiveness investigation into imported medical CT tube components and initiated an anti-dumping investigation into related products from the US and India. Additionally, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs imposed export controls on certain rare earths, added 16 US entities to an export control list, and placed 11 entities on an unreliable entities list. The General Administration of Customs also suspended imports from two US poultry producers.

  5. “Threatened Reciprocal Tariff” Retaliation: On April 8, the Tariff Commission raised the retaliatory tariff from 34% to 84%.

  6. “Ultimate Reciprocal Tariff” Retaliation: On April 11, the Tariff Commission reluctantly issued Announcement No. 6 of 2025, raising the retaliatory tariff to 125% and leaving a memorable quote: “…If the US continues to impose additional tariffs on Chinese exports, China will ignore them.”

Which Measures Were Exempted in the Joint Statement? #

According to the Joint Statement, the US canceled the more extreme measures under the “threatened and super reciprocal tariffs,” reducing the “reciprocal tariff” from 34% to 10%. In response, China also lowered its retaliatory tariff to 10%.

Thus, the remaining additional tariffs imposed on China (excluding those before February 2025 unless specified) are:

  1. All products: Adjusted “reciprocal tariff” of 10% and fentanyl tariff of 20%, totaling 30%;
  2. Steel and aluminum products: US Section 232 tariffs of 25% (totaling 45%);
  3. Automobile products: US Section 232 tariffs of 25%.

The remaining retaliatory tariffs imposed on the US are:

  1. All products: Adjusted retaliatory tariff of 10%;
  2. Fentanyl retaliatory tariffs: Varying from 10% to 15% on different products.

Additionally, the Joint Statement states that China will take necessary measures to “suspend or cancel non-tariff retaliatory measures against the US since April 2, 2025.” Based on the timeline and nature of the measures, these may include:

  1. Competitiveness and anti-dumping investigations into medical CT tube components;
  2. Export controls on rare earths;
  3. Additions to export control and unreliable entities lists;
  4. Restrictions on poultry imports.

Earlier measures and the WTO consultation request are clearly not included. However, the ambiguity over which of these suspended or canceled measures qualify as non-tariff retaliatory actions may become a focal point for future negotiations, particularly regarding rare earth export controls.

Potential Future Impacts? #

The release of the Joint Statement may signal that the most extreme phase of this tariff confrontation has passed, with protracted negotiations likely to follow. However, this is far from “garbage time.” Despite the US’s economic leverage in trade negotiations, China still holds key cards. The Trump administration’s decision to partially exempt electronics tariffs underscores this—China is a critical node in global supply chains, and forced decoupling would not only cause short-term pain for the US but could also lead to systemic disruptions.

In this round of confrontation, China did not counter every US measure one-for-one. Instead, it adopted a strategy of “asymmetric retaliation” from the outset, escalating only as the Trump administration grew increasingly erratic. This approach may become more common in future disputes, allowing China to retaliate while demonstrating its commitment to maintaining international market stability.

The Joint Statement opens by noting that the agreement was reached “Reflecting on their recent discussions and believing that continued discussions have the potential to address the concerns of each side in their economic and trade relationship” suggesting ongoing dialogue even during the height of tensions. The document also outlines high-level arrangements for future engagement, which will help manage disagreements and prevent the situation from spiraling out of control. At the same time, it sets the stage for a more nuanced and dynamic game of strategy—stay tuned!

This work was partially translated by DeepSeek.